Kent Hehr will wear the black hat for three Alberta political parties if he’s elected mayor of Calgary.Like ripples on a pond, the impact of yesterday’s announcement by Alberta Liberal MLA Kent Hehr that he plans to run for mayor of Calgary could spread far beyond Cowtown City Hall.
In any city of more than a million people, something would be gravely amiss if there weren’t some pretty vigorous disagreements on city council. But to voters who are barely paying attention, Mr. Hehr’s campaign claim that Calgary council is so divided and dysfunctional it needs an outsider to patch things up may carry a certain amount of credibility.
So the not-very-surprising candidacy of the affable and well-spoken MLA for the Calgary-Buffalo riding, a lawyer who became a quadriplegic after a random shooting 18 years ago, probably has as good a chance as any in what is already a crowded field after popular Calgary Mayor David Bronconnier announced he is stepping down in October.
At his press conference yesterday, Mr. Hehr shrugged off the idea that running for civic office has anything to do with the lacklustre recent performance of Alberta Liberal Leader David Swann. Maybe so, maybe not, but the announcement of Mr. Hehr’s planned departure is sure to add to doubts about Dr. Swann’s ability to hang onto the Liberal leadership.
Now, since Mr. Hehr has indicated he plans to keep his seat in the Legislature while he campaigns for mayor, for the moment the problems created by yesterday’s announcement are Dr. Swann’s alone.
But if Mr. Hehr takes Cowtown City Hall on Oct. 18, which is Municipal Election Day throughout Alberta, he will obviously have to resign his seat in the provincial Legislature. When that happens, the situation becomes an interesting problem for every party in the Legislature except the NDP, which has insufficient supporters in Calgary to mount a meaningful challenge.
Consider first the dilemma that would be faced by Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach, who has promised repeatedly there will be no general election until March 2012. Facing a tough challenge from the right by the well-financed Wildrose Alliance led by the capable Danielle Smith, would he have the courage to roll the dice and call a quick by-election?
If he did, and the Alliance candidate won, conservative voters would view the upstart party as an increasingly credible alternative to the moribund Progressive Conservatives. Worse, Mr. Stelmach’s own leadership would without question come under increased pressure as dissidents within his own party grumbled (as some are grumbling now) that he is leading them into the abyss!
If he didn’t call a by-election, though, the potential for political erosion would be almost as great. One can almost hear the shouts of political cowardice from Wildrose Alliance supporters.
But this scenario also creates problems for the Wildrose Alliance. Ms. Smith’s strategy of campaigning full-time without the work and critical attention associated with holding a seat in the Legislature has been working pretty well. But if Mr. Stelmach called a by-election, how could she not run in it?
But Calgary-Buffalo, with a recent history of strong Liberal votes, would be no shoo-in for Ms. Smith. Since the election of Sheldon Chumir in 1986, the Alberta Liberals have done well in Calgary-Buffalo, electing their candidates in six out of eight elections. So what happens to Ms. Smith’s credibility if she grabs for the brass ring in Calgary-Buffalo … and misses?
And then there is Dr. Swann, his leadership already rocked by the ungracious April 13 departure from the Alberta Liberal caucus of Calgary-Currie MLA Dave Taylor (who will now sit as an independent) and the possible departure of Mr. Hehr (who supported Mr. Taylor’s bid for the Liberal leadership in 2008).
What would the impact be for Dr. Swann if he couldn’t lead the liberals to a victory in a riding where his party has not only done well in the past, but the right-wing vote is badly divided between the Conservatives and the Wildrose Alliance? Surely it would ring the death knell for his leadership!
What’s more, the prospect of such a damaging Liberal defeat would likely tempt the New Democrats to try to find a strong candidate in hopes of destroying the Liberals as the centre-right opposition.
In such circumstances, the only hope for the Liberals would be to find a popular and credible candidate with sufficient profile to capitalize on traditional Liberal strength in the riding despite Dr. Swann’s own weakness. Can Dr. Swann persuade such a person to run? It is an open question.
In other words, the risks of a by-election in Calgary Buffalo next fall or winter are so great for the Conservatives, the Wildrose Alliance and the Liberals, that all their leaders must all be praying Mr. Hehr never darkens the door of the Calgary Mayor’s office.
This post also appears on Rabble.ca.
5 comments:
It is funny to read how all the passive aggressive ninnies are dreaming up silly scenarios that "should scare the wild rose alliance".
Wasn't it the WAP that was supposed to be scary!
Besides, you need to have something to lose before you can be afraid of losing it. Right now the WAP has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
So I guess if you want to be terrified by every little announcement, go right ahead. I shall sit back smugly and bemusedly laugh. At you not with you.
Dave;
Longtime reader, first time poster. Do you think that Dave Bronconnier will attempt to become the provincial Liberal Leader before the next provincial election?
If Hehr wins Stelmach has to either call for the by-election within 6 months or go for a full general election.
Jane Morgan is quite right, and she is kind not to infer that I was in error or, at the very least, insufficiently clear about the point I was trying to make. To be crystal clear about this, I think it is more likely that the premier will roll the dice and go with a quick general election, notwithstanding his previous promises, because his prospects do not seem to be improving with time. If he merely calls a by-election,it would be interesting to know Ms. Morgan's thoughts as a Wildrose insider on whether Danielle Smith is likely to contest the seat herself or let another member of the party stand. That's still to be decided by Wildrose strategists, I would guess. That said, as noted in the post, lots of people will heave a sigh of relief if Mr. Hehr is not successful in October.
Cam MacCay's comment is interesting, too. I know David Bronconnier a little from my time covering Calgary city council, back when he was an alderman and before. I just can't believe he doesn't have his eye on something politically bigger and better. That said, I haven't talked to him in a decade, and lots of water can pass under a bridge in that span of time. What's more, it would be very difficult for the Liberals to unseat a leader and organize a leadership race in the time remaining before the next election - especially if my speculation in the paragraph above is correct. But if Mr.Bronconnier were to seek the leadership, he would be more palatable to the province's business community than any Liberal leader since Lawrence Decore.
Hi David,
I was pretty sure it was not an error on your part.
I too would not be surprised by an early general election call. Stelmach has flip flopped on many things he has given his "word" on.
I resigned my position with the WAP in January, so sorry to disappoint, I'm not much of an "insider". I really don't know what Danielle or any strategists might be thinking.
You can find a quote from Danielle though on this very matter, hereQuestion # 17:
http://www.themoderateseparatist.com/2010/02/20-questions-with-danielle-smith.html
As for Hehr, I'm glad he has joined the race. With McIvor also running it gives voters two very clear choices. As opposed to the usual wishy washy group to select from.
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