The latest Alberta Conservative budget strategy comes right out of the playbook of former prime minister Jean Chrétien, below: find out where the voters are, and go there. Below Jean, Carl von Clausewitz.This column ran in today’s edition of the Saint City News.
Premier Ed Stelmach, Finance Minister Ted Morton and their political advisors have moved the goalposts of Alberta’s political game with their Feb. 9 provincial budget.
A month ago, the Progressive Conservative government looked weak, confused and on its way to the proverbial dustbin of history. Albertans were increasingly unhappy with the government’s performance in many policy areas, most particularly health care. Their discontent was reflected in sagging public opinion poll results. Premier Stelmach looked bewildered.
The Wildrose Alliance, a new political party attacking the government from the right, appeared to have captured the imagination of tens of thousands of Albertans. It didn’t seem unreasonable to imagine the Alliance could soon win a general election.
No more! Today, the government looks strong and very much in control. The Alliance, which was riding a great wave of public dissatisfaction, woke up on Feb. 10 to a public that was relieved and quietly pleased with the government’s new approach to managing the affairs of the province.
Where a few days before, the Alliance had the Conservatives on the run with dramatic floor crossings by disaffected government MLAs, all of a sudden those among the next wave of Tory turncoats were said to be privately reconsidering their plans to join the Wildrose revolution.
What changed? Nothing less than the Conservatives’ core strategy. In a nutshell, the government figured out where the voters were, and went there.
Instead of trying to outflank the Wildrose Alliance by going ever farther to the right, which had appeared to be the Conservative strategy right up until budget day, they moved back to the centre, the ground occupied by most Albertans.
In practical terms, this meant significantly increased funding for public health care, no dramatic slashing of most other public programs as advocated by the Alliance and its market fundamentalist echo chamber in the media and academia, and a commitment not to make dramatic changes to programs Albertans like.
This was done suddenly, with many hints in advance the government was moving the opposite direction. Well, as observed by Carl von Clausewitz, the great 19th Century Prussian theorist of war, surprise plays a greater role in strategy than tactics.
This budget was certainly a surprise. Overnight, the Wildrose Alliance is left standing all alone, isolated in right field, mumbling their market fundamentalist mantra.
Alberta Conservatives may not be completely comfortable with the analogy, but their leaders’ gambit came right out of the playbook of former Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien, a politician who knew unerringly where the voters were and sought them out. Whether Albertans approved of Mr. Chrétien’s policies, they will recall he led his party to three majority governments and defined Canadian politics for a generation.
It will take all the opposition parties more than a little time to recover from their Feb. 9 surprise.
For the Liberals and New Democrats, it means Conservative-Wildrose vote splitting will likely take place in fewer ridings than they had hoped.
For Wildrose strategists, the problem is more severe. If they stay where they are, they will lose the mainstream. If they move toward the centre, their foes will whisper, “hidden agenda.” Their strategists’ most likely riposte will be to try to restore the flow of turncoats – tougher now than before. A favourable pre-budget poll might help.
What pushed the Tories back to the centre? No doubt a series of angry town hall meetings on health care frightened party moderates enough to speak out in caucus. But, ironically, the Wildrose strategy may also have been too successful. Every floor crosser, real or imagined, strengthened the hand of the moderates in caucus.
As a result, for the moment, the status quo, and possibly sanity, prevails.
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